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Die Abteilung für Industriefinanzierung und Investment Banking an der TU
Wien lädt alle interessierten WissenschafterInnen und "PraktikerInnen"
recht herzlich zur
Visiting Professorship Lecture
A COMPARISON OF THE STOCHASTIC
PROCESSES DRIVING ASSET RETURNS
AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF MODEL MIS-SPECIFICATION
ON THE VALUATION OF CONTINGENT CLAIMS
Professor Dr. ROBERT G. TOMPKINS, PhD.
Zeit: Di, 19. 1. 1999, 14.00-17.00
Mo, 25. 1. 1999, 14.00-17.00
Ort: Seminarraum, Floragasse, Parterre.
ein. Prof. Tompkins wird seine neuesten Forschungsergebnisse im Bereich
der Optionsbewertung in einem ausreichendem zeitlichen Rahmen
detailliert präsentieren. Dadurch soll eine intensivere Diskussion der
verwendeten Methoden und Ergebnisse möglich sein.
ABSTRACT
Substantial evidence exists in the Literature that the stochastic
process driving most asset returns does not conform to i.i.d. Geometric
Brownian motion. In the examination of asset returns two general
approaches have been examined to better understand these divergences:
using non-normal distributions for the underlying price processes and
ARCH/GARCH models to capture volatility clustering. This research will
combine both approaches to capture a wider spectrum of the empirical
anomalies.
In this paper, we will examine the stochastic processes for Bond
futures/forwards, Stock Index futures and sixteen Austrian stocks. For
the Bond and Stock Index markets, we compare established Western markets
to emerging markets. We will employ a Mean Square Errors approach to fit
various models to six critical attributes that capture the aspects of
non-normality that have been identified in the literature. Our results
confirm the findings of Bates (1996) for currencies and Scott (1994) for
American stocks that the stochastic processes for almost all assets
examined are best described by a Jump-Diffusion model with Stochastic
Volatility.
To capture an asymmetrical jump process, we use a Normal Inverse
Gaussian (NIG) distribution which has recently been introduced by
Barndorff-Nielsen (1994) and Rydberg (1996). We present a simple method
for the simulation of NIG processes and provide an equivalent martingale
adjustment to the drift of the process.
Using these best fitting models for each market, we compare the errors
in pricing European call options using pricing models assuming Geometric
Brownian motion and using the skewed Jump-Diffusion model with
Stochastic Volatility. Substantial errors in the pricing of options are
observed and these errors are examined across strike prices and time.
Our results are consistent with existence of implied volatility smiles
and term structure effects observed for traded options.
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